From Reluctant Admiration to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A unexpected operation against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power declares its intention to govern indefinitely.

That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Moscow itself once imagined, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to proceed: swift, decisive and decisive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be engaged in combat for four years.”

Such commentary have fed a atmosphere of introspection among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – hoping to forging a new axis able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. But offering any tangible support to a country so far away is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”